Stockwatch- G&W Group (Holdings) Ltd listed on SGX
Stockwatch: G&W Group (Holdings) Ltd listed on SGX
Currently, trading at 22cts, which is a 15% discount to net cash per share of 26cts, and 58% discount to NAV per share of 52.5cts (based on 31 Dec 2005 balance sheet). The fact that it is trading below net cash per share catches my eyes as it fits my description of a value stock.
CORPORATE PROFILE
Established in 1979, G & W Group (Holdings) Limited, today focuses on the Property Development and Management, Education and other businesses in the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”).
It also has businesses in the Construction and Building Materials segment as well as in the Oil & Gas segment.
Over the years, the Group has built up a strong business network and presence in Asia.
A quick review of its 2005 annual report shows that G&W is remain profitable for the last 3 years:
Net Profit EPS
2003 S$0.506m 0.41cts
2004 S$0.853m 0.69cts
2005 S$0.944m 0.76cts
A very recent announcement on MASNET on 12 Apr 2006 for reference:
G & W Group Rides On PRC’s
Property Market Boom
-Maiden Residential Property Development, Sentosa Garden was a sell-out success
-Targets two new property development projects in PRC
-Expects solid earnings potentials from its property ventures in PRC
Singapore, 12 April 2006 – Mainboard-listed G & W Group (Holdings) Limited (“G & W” or the “Group”), an established property development group expects solid potential earnings streams from its property development projects in PRC due to its continued strong economic growth, huge population base with strong aspirations of home ownership and rapid urbanization.
The Group expects an improvement in its financial performance due to the robust economic growth in the region, especially Singapore and PRC. The recovery in the Singapore construction industry * coupled with the strong growth in the oil & gas sector have enhanced the profitability of its two associate companies namely, Construction Consortium Pte. Ltd. and Oakwell Engineering Limited.
G & W Managing Director, Mr Koh Tiak Chye said,” We are pleased to update our shareholders and the public about the improving performance of the Group. The sell-out success of our Sentosa Garden project has clearly supported the Group’s strategic focus on the PRC property market. Our focus on the property business in PRC will be a key growth driver for the Group in the coming years. ”
Leveraging on G & W’s expertise and experience in PRC, the Group has embarked on two new property development projects through various joint venture partners. The first project is Changbai New Town in Heping District in Shenyang while the second project is in Zhonglu District of Changzhou, Jiangsu Province.
The Changbai New Town project has the potential to be developed into mixed residential and commercial properties and other amenities. The project will be spread over approximately six phases and will extend over a period of approximately nine years.
When asked to comment on the plans for the future, Mr Koh responded optimistically,” We have been in the China market since the early nineties and have established strong working relationship with our PRC partners. This has given the Group a good head start into the booming China’s residential and commercial property market which still has a lot of growth potential in view of China’s growing affluence.”
Mr Koh continued, “ The Group is currently waiting for approval from the local authorities with regards to our two property development projects. More details would be revealed when we have obtained the necessary approval. ”
Mr Koh concluded, “ The Group has a strong balance sheet of some S$59 million cash and cash equivalents as at 31 December 2005. We intend to continue building up our war chest in view of the current opportunities in the booming PRC property market. Going forward, we anticipate the PRC property market to be the main growth driver for G & W Group.”
* Based on the report by Building & Construction Authority (“BCA”), the total construction demand is likely to reach between S$12.0 billion and S$13.5 billion in 2006 as oppose to S$11.3 billion in 2005.
Latest weekly update from BCA Research
Feature Stories - Week of April 28, 2006
[04-28-2006]
China: Strong Growth Does Not Equal Monetary Tightening
[04-27-2006]
U.S. Consumers Face Triple Whammy
[04-26-2006]
Oil Prices And Cyclical Stocks
[04-25-2006]
The Root Of Global Disinflation Is Intact
[04-24-2006]
Material Sector Shakeout Ahead?
For details, click on the link to BCA Research.
苏黎士投机定律
Below is an article on the chinese version of The Zurich Axioms
赚钱有没有方法?事实上，这个问题一直令许多想要发财的人感到困扰。台湾股市已经飘涨三、四个年头，您是否赚到了钱?您对自己操作的表现感到满意吗?是不是有改善的方法?
您能击败股市吗?或是说，您操作股票所获得的投资报酬率，会比股市的表现好吗?如果是，那么你已经称得上专家，甚至可说是赢家，不必再另请高明，而大可我行我素按照自己的方法去操作，否则就不妨平心静气的反省自己为什么无法击败股市。
但是什么是股市的表现呢?简单的说就是股市的涨幅。以1989年台湾股市为例，1月5日台湾股价加权指数是4873.01点，12月28日封关时指数涨到了9624.18，年涨幅约为97％，这就是股市的表现。如果你的操作成绩低于97％，这就表示你已经被当了。
这种说法的理由是，如果你在元月1日将资金投入，经过一年的时间，你的本金也应该和服市同步增长，根本无庸费心，因为股市的浪潮自然会将你的钱往上推，只要你搭上了这条船。或许你不认为这是合理的说法，但我们也无须争论。这里所要说的是，如果你对自己的操作成绩不满意，或是认为自己的表现比股市差，那就不妨看看苏黎士投机定律的教导是否能改善你的投资成绩?
苏黎士投机定律(Zurich Axiom)是早期在华尔街股市从事股票投机，并希望因此而致富的一群瑞士人所使用的术语。它包括一套实用且相关的定律，可提供任何投资者或投机者(投机和投资根本是一回事，因此以下投机和投资会交互使用)，从事金钱游戏并控制风险的法则。
这里要注意的是，它是陈述有关控制风险的方法，而不是要你．避免风险，因为任何投资都有风险，对吗?用这些定律检讨自己的得失并身体力行，你可能就会在今天大展鸿图。
定律1．如果你对自己从事的投机不感到忧虑，那么你冒的风险肯定不够。
这句话是说，投资的资金一定要足，切勿听信专家所谓的“用闲置资金投资”的建议。当然问题在于多少钱才算足．但是我们不妨从反面来思考。如果你用所谓的闲钱十万元来投资股票，请问今年你可能赚多少?赚了一两倍又能增加自己多少财富?干脆直截了当的说，赌小钱绝对赚不到大钱，你以为如何?但这并非要你去大赌，而是要告诉你，投机的金额要大到让自己很在意或忧虑才行，而这就是合理或足够的投资金额。当然每个人所能承受的忧虑 程度不同，因此投机的金额亦因人而异。
这条定律也涵盖了两项次要原则，一是在你认为已经发掘了好投机机会时，尽量下足额的资金，二是切勿相信所谓的“不要把所有钱放在一个篮子”分散风险的建议，因为你不是大玩家。过份分散资金同样也分散获利的机会。
总之，要学习下大赌注，不要怕赔钱，不要怕让自己心理受到创伤。事实上只要控制得当，最差的状况也不过是使自己再穷些而已。但相反地，获利的机会也将无可限量，或许甚至可以让自己脱难穷困。
定律2．尽早获利了结。
这个定律要求你要节制自己的贪婪心理。在操作股票时，贪婪会表现在股价持续飘涨时的惜售，而原因是伯后悔。这也就是说，害怕在卖掉股票之后，股票会继续上涨。的确每个人都有这种经验，有时候它会令人懊恼得寝食难安。甚至会让有些人到了口中念念有词的地步。但是华尔街一直流行一句话是：“当股票卖掉之后，别再过问股价的涨跌。”
华尔街老手的做法是，在进场买进股票一段时间，不管是赚还是赔，到了自己认为应该结束的时候就强迫自己结束，然后让自己好好轻松一番，完全不再过问股市。根据统计，这段轻松时间认一两周到一两个月后不等。
至于游戏结束的时间如何决定呢?通常的作法是，事先决定自己希望达到的获利率，只要目标一达成就立即脱身。这条定律要告诉你的就是，要求自己在股价攀升到顶点之前脱手，不要期望命运之神会持续赐福予你。
由于股票游戏并没有明订的起点或终点，一切都要靠自己决定，因此自己就是自己的裁判。当预定目标达成后，立即脱手，甚至退场后股价持续在攀升，也要压抑自己的贪念，不要被胜利冲昏头，又再进场。
定律3．当船开始下沉时，不要祷告，赶快脱身。
换句话说，当股市走势趋于恶化时，就要立即脱身，甚至立即停损认赔，不要让自己套牢。在这方面投资人要克服的心理障碍，不只是除了怕股票卖掉之后的立即反弹，另外两大心理障碍是，不愿承受小额损失，以及始终盼望股市会反弹而死不承认自己眼光错误。事实上，买错或卖错是很普通的事，不足大惊小怪，只是要避免错得太离谱。
欣然接受多次的小额损失，但是要设法候机扳回来。华尔街交易员曾经表示，金融操作赚赔的机会都是二分之一，只要能控制在赔小钱，而设法赚大钱，这才是赚钱赚在刀口上的道理。这个定律 告诫你，当事态转坏时，不要再心存侥幸心理，希望情况会好转。希望是心理创伤的治疗剂，但决不是从事投机活动的有效工具。任何从事股票投机的人最好接受停损做为必要的操作技巧。
定律4．人类行为是无法预测的，绝对不能相信任何能预测未来的未先知。
分析师或股市名嘴经常到处谈论并预测股市走势和个股股价的涨跌，但是一般投资人很少会去检定这些预测的准确度。检验准确度最好的方法就是照着他们的话去做，看看成功的次数如何?获利性如何?当然谁也不能否认有些预测是准确的，但这也不能保证你一定能赚得到钱，是吗?
不过这个定律要表达的是，不要相信任何人的预测，甚至不要以此做为自己从事股票投机操作的准绳。长远来说，这不会发生效用，金钱游戏纯属人类行为的范畴，根本无法预测。华尔街人士的建议是，价格涨跌变化的盘面永远是最正确的参考。不要根据任何对未来的预测的来决定投机行动的方针，最好是面对事实迅速地做出反应，决定行动的方向。
因此，比较正确的心态是：“我有理由相信这样做会成功”，而不是“根据分析师的预测，我认为这样做一定会成功。”当事与愿违时，别忘了定律3棗立即停损。
定律5．混乱并不危险，相信规律才危险。
简单的说，任何金融工具的走势绝对不存在所谓的规律、也没有可以绝对保证获利的公式可循。过份相信或依赖某种公式或诀窍，长远来看也不会有效。
相信股市走势有规律存在的心理是假定了历史会重演。许多专家经常研究以往造成涨跌的原因，而后期待只要这些原因重复出现，大势也会因此涨跌。不过在你接受任何这类说法时不妨自问，为什么成千上万的聪明人，穷数十年之精力研究，却未因此而致富?或许这样就能让自己的脑筋清醒一点，不轻易相信这种说法。
此外也别太相信技术分析。事实上技术分析也只不过是研究过去价格走势所形成的技术形态，如头肩顶、三角型，来决定买进卖出的操作技巧而已。事实上，你不妨照着做看看，试试准确性如何?其实成功的机会仍然是二分之一，各种走势形态事后看来或解释起来都头头是道。
另外也不可轻信以下两说法：其一是认为股价走势必然是某些前因所造成，其二是认为自己运气来临了。总之，投机活动决无公式可循。在从事任何投机活动前，你都必须深思熟虑，只要自己确定这有潜力的机会，便慷慨下注。记住，投机决不可能在有规律的情况下进行，你一定会面临无数混乱的局面。只要自己保待清醒，就能避免受创过深。
定律6．不要让资金陷在某个投机工具上。随时得保持机动性。
只要资金陷入某项投机工具上，机会成本就会很高，因为资金被卡死会让你失去投入其他获利更高的机会。一般经验显示，一个人越钟情于某项投机工具，就越不可能成为一个杰出的投机者。
在这方面，任何人要克服的心理障碍是，不要因为个人的偏好，而将资金陷在已经没有希望的投机工具上。另一方面，只要发觉有吸引你的投机机会横在眼前，就要毫不犹豫的脱掉原来的樊笼。
这个定律是希望你随时提高警觉，看看周遭的一切，不要因为自己的偏好而阻碍了其他的投机活动。所有的投机机会都要经过审慎的思考，切勿因为一些无谓的理由而阻碍了个人的行动。情势对自己不利时要勇于脱身，不要让自己陷得太深，无法全身而退。
定律7．只要是能够合理解释的直觉或预感,就可以作为投机活动的依据。
这个定律相信直觉可能会是从事投机活动时有效的指导，决不可以因为它听起来有点愚蠢而等闲视之。当直觉或预感降临时,不妨自忖它从何而来?如果你的确在平常时间对某些投机工具曾寄予相当程度的关切或研究，甚至对它有某种程度的掌握时，就不妨相信自己的直觉。当然它也不会百分之百正确。
但是要注意的是，不要把希望和直觉混为一谈。通常人在对某件事怀有相当程度的渴望时就会产生希望，而轻易相信这件事一定会发生。比较值得参考的辨别方法是，只要你认为自己渴望的事将会发生时，这种心理就应该以怀疑的态度看待。相反地，当直觉告诉你，事态的发展会和你希望的方面相反时，这种直觉往往很可靠.
这是一个非常有趣的原理，它告诉你不要忽视直觉或预感在投机活动中所扮演的角色，而你必须以怀疑和谨慎的态度对待它。通常直觉都是从你个人以往经验所衍生而来的，只是你不知道它真正的来历。当强烈的直觉指引你时，只要能合理的加以解释，不妨相信它，试试看。
定律8．迷信股市的涨跌受超自然力支配，这是不可能的。
这个定律要你别过份相信具有神秘色彩的预言。从78年开始、流行用紫微斗数判断股市走势，但是到底准确性如何，似乎也没有人在意。一般投资人在这方面所犯下的偏颇都是“宁可信其有，不可信其无”。其实，你自己做预测也不见得会很离谱。如果这些预言家的预言的确有效．那么他们早就发了。因此别对求神问卦的结果估计得太高。不过如果能淡然处之，你也可以从中享受一些乐趣。
圣经上有句话说：“撒旦的归撤旦，上帝的归上帝。”最好还是把金钱世界和信仰世界分得清楚些，毕竟它不会带来太大的用处。有时候，当许多人都迷信某天股市行情会崩盘时，也确实是会有影响的，但仍不致会坏到无可收拾的残局。过份迷信的坏处是它会让你失去投机的警觉性，而在毫无提防的情况下让自己陷入绝境。投机最值得依赖的伙伴仍然是自己的智慧。
定律9．预期最佳状况会发生就是乐观，而信心则是知道如何处理最坏的状况。决不要因为乐观而采取投机活动。
乐观的入经常受人赞美，但是在金钱世界里，过份乐观不会令你有所斩获。以78年的选举行情为例，利多与长红的极端乐观带来的是什么?当每个人都陷于极端乐观的情绪之中时，不妨做反向思考，或许反面才是对的。
当每个人都很乐观时，自己也很容易因此而丧失独立的判断力。在从事投机活动时，不妨先思考好，当事态恶化时要如何处理?如果能找到答案，你就成了一个有信心的投机者。
定律10．不要跟着群众走，他们也会犯错。
持这种态度的人经常会被指为过于自负。在金钱世界里，自负并不是一个人的缺点。不过当个人的看法和群众相异时，的确会为自己造成相当的压力。
在自负方面有一个原则是可以确立的，亦即最佳的进场时机经常是当群众都不愿进场的时刻。回想78年台湾股市于11月14日的指数高峰l0499.58点跌到12月l1日的8176.08点，当时悲观气氛最浓烈的时候，是否就是最佳的进场时机.
定律11．失败时别气馁，设法忘掉失败的痛苦，重新再来。
用俗话说就是要有毅力。从事投机活动决不可以心存一次成功的心理。华尔街许多杰出交易员早年都曾数度破产，但是他们却能不断的尝试、学习并且改变自己的个性，终于出类拔萃。
但是毅力不可以和顽固混为一谈。典型的顽固是不承认自己投机所犯的错误，甚至设想要逢低承接，拉低平均成本。这种作法在情势转坏时会显得特别吃重，甚至会损失不赀。注意它和定律3的差别。
定律12．长期计划会让人产生未来完全在掌握之中的幻觉，决不要为自己做长期计划。
事实上，你真正需要的长期计划应该以钱本身做为关切的焦点。也就是要致富的意愿。要尽量避免从事长期投资，只要有好机会就大胆投入，事态转坏就立即抽身。人要随时保持致富的高度企图心。
如何致富是无法事先了解或计划的，你需要知道的事只是，总之有一天你会发财。套一句英国经济学家凯因斯的话说：“长期我们都死了”。
The Zurich Axioms- a set of simple investment rules
Below is an article on The Zurich Axioms, I particularly feel that Axiom no. 3, "When the ship starts to sink, don't pray. Jump." is something we should stick to.
A set of simple (major and minor) rules devised by a set of Swiss investors, on how to succeed on the Stock Exchange – but which are generally applicable to any situation of selecting and managing risk.
The Zurich Axioms Max Gunther, Unwin Paperbacks: ISBN 0-04-332126-7
THE (bare) AXIOMS
1: ON RISK Worry is not a sickness, but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.1.1: Always play for meaningful stakes.1.2: Resist the allure of diversification.
2: ON GREED Always take your profit too soon.
2.3: Decide in advance what you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.
3: ON HOPE When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray. Jump.
3.4: Accept small losses cheerfully. Expect to experience several whilst awaiting a large gain.
4: ON FORECASTS Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.
5: ON PATTERNS Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.5.5: Beware the Historian’s Trap (History does not repeat itself).5.6: Beware the Chartist’s Illusion (Graphs lie).5.7: Beware the Correlation and Causality delusions (don’t find patterns).5.8: Beware the Gambler’s Fallacy (..it’s only luck).
6: ON MOBILITY Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.6.9: Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.6.10: Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.
7: ON INTUITION A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.7.11: Never confuse a hunch with a hope.
8: ON RELIGION AND THE OCCULT It is unlikely that God’s plan for the universe includes making you rich.8.12: If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.8.13: A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.
9: ON OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.
10: ON CONSENSUS Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.10.14: Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy is when nobody else wants it.
11: ON STUBBORNNESS If is doesn’t pay off first time, forget it.11.15: Never try to save a bad investment by “averaging down” (buying more).
12: ON PLANNING Long range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long range plans, or other people’s, seriously.12.16: Shun long-term investments.
THE AXIOMS (plus notes)
Major Axiom #1: ON RISK Worry is not a sickness, but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough. Adventure is what makes life worth living. And the way to have an adventure is to expose yourself to risk.
Minor Axiom #1.1 Always play for meaningful stakes. Only bet what you can afford to lose. Decide what this really means to you. Choose your degree of worry, eg. if the risk fails you are setup so that you lose 50% of your investment (50% is then your chosen degree of worry). You won’t get rich by betting small.
Minor Axiom #1.2 Resist the allure of diversification. The more you diversify, the smaller your investments get, thus breaking #1.1.By diversifying, the wins will only cancel out the losses. Also, you become a juggler, liable to lose control of the balls. ‘Put all of your eggs into one basket – and then watch the basket’.A little diversity won’t harm, but don’t speculate on more than about six items, and only speculate on those in which you are genuinely interested. The only chance you have of getting rich is via risk. And the price of risk is worry.
Major Axiom #2: ON GREED Always take your profit too soon. If you can conquer greed, you will be a better speculate than 99% of all others. If you want less, you will go home with more.Don’t be ashamed of being an acquirer. But aquisitiveness gone haywire is greed.Any series of events which produces a gain will be of short duration, and the profit will not be big. Don’t wait for the ‘big one’; it won’t come. Always bet on the short and modest. When you have a good profit, cash in and walk away.Never check on the price of something you have sold.
Minor Axiom #2.3 Decide in advance what you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.A peculiar phenomenon: After each win, the win feels like a given right, and it seems like you’re back at the start again.The race ends only when you say it ends. Reinforce it by having a minor celebration.Always sell too soon.
Major Axiom #3: ON HOPE When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray. Jump.About half your speculations will turn sour. Half your guesses will be wrong.It is one of the most difficult things, knowing how to get out of a bad situation. It takes courage, and a kind of honesty with a cutting edge like a razor.The first obstacle is the fear of regret (see also #2), where you fear that a loser will win again if you cut loose.If you wait for the investment to go up again, you could wait years, and your capital will be stuck, languishing in the slough of despond.The second obstacle is the need to abandon part of an investment. Cutting loose hurts.Never speculate on margin – ie. borrowing money to invest.The third obstacle is the difficulty of admitting you were wrong. Refusing to admit you were wrong is the wrongest response of them all.
Minor Axiom #3.4 Accept small losses cheerfully. Expect to experience several whilst awaiting a large gain.Take a small loss. If the ship continues to sink, get out.Don’t use ‘Stop-loss’ orders (ie. standing order to sell if stock falls below a preset figure). It robs you of flexibility.Don’t wait around for trouble.
Major Axiom #4: ON FORECASTS Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly. More often than not, listening to prophets and tipsters turns out to be a mistake. You can’t profit from prophets.Prophets make their reputation on a few biggies. The cost is many failures, which are ignored.Not even self-fulfilling prophesies work every time.Share prices change because of what people think a company’s future is.
Major Axiom #5: ON PATTERNS Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.Beware unit trusts and fund managers, who analyse everything. They promise to find order which isn’t there, selling only the illusion of order. Trust least those who find most order. Trust illusion and you lull yourself into a false sense of security.If you follow a ‘pattern’ and get rich – you were only lucky. Be aware, the opposite can happen too. Any formula must fully recognise luck.
Minor Axiom #5.5 Beware the Historian’s Trap.History does not repeat itself. Share price changes are random.
Minor Axiom #5.6 Beware the Chartist’s Illusion.Graphs are dangerous – they can make the historian’s trap look real. Lines which go up, don’t go up forever. Fluctuations change period. Life doesn’t happen in a straight line.
Minor Axiom #5.7 Beware the Correlation and Causality delusions.It’s easy to connect unconnected things. We seek order and find it (and reason for it) where none exists.People use this to explain things after the fact too.
Minor Axiom #5.8 Beware the Gambler’s FallacyIf you think you’re ‘hot’, making all the right decisions, you’re not. Your just lucky.Winning streaks will happen. But each toss of the coin is equally likely to come down heads as tails.Don’t try to find out why random things happen. You can’t.‘Lies, damned lies, and statistics’.The only approach is to study the market, and have a go on something that ‘looks good’. Work more by feel than numbers.
Major Axiom #6: ON MOBILITY Avoid putting down roots. They impede motionThe more you seek being surrounded by the old and familiar, the worse a speculator you will become.
Minor Axiom #6.9 Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.There may be times when you will have to choose between roots and money.Get attached to people, not to things (eg. houses, places, companies).
Minor Axiom #6.10 Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.Beware of speculations which turn into hobbies (eg. when speculating in art!).Don’t get trapped waiting for a payoff. Don’t get to feel the investment ‘owes’ you (or, worse, you ‘owe’ it).Make the ‘switch’ decision solely on the speed of payoff.
Major Axiom #7: ON INTUITION A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.Some will scorn hunches. Some will always follow them. The best approach is in between. Learn to use them discriminately, if you can.A usable hunch is not supernatural, it is the subconscious using information that you didn’t know you knew.A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained. ie. you might reasonably have acquired the necessary information somewhere, sometime.
Minor Axiom #7.11 Never confuse a hunch with a hopeWhen you want something enough, it is easy to believe it will happen.A simple rule: don’t trust hunches about things you’d like to happen.
Major Axiom #8: ON RELIGION AND THE OCCULT It is unlikely that God’s plan for the universe includes making you rich.It may seem like divine providence, but before long, you’ll find that it’s really luck.
Minor Axiom #8.12 If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich This applies to any esoteric doctrine.No matter what any doctrine may do for your inner peace, it won’t fatten your bank balance.All ‘major’ prophets have had plenty of failures to balance out (statistically) their famous successes.
Minor Axiom #8.13 A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is ept in its place.The way to use a superstition is with humour.The time to use it is in a situation which absolutely will not lend itself to rational analysis.
Major Axiom #9: ON OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you ill handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.Beware of optimism in risky things – it is a dangerous state of mind. You feel that the best result will happen.It can lead you into places where you shouldn’t be, and it can persuade you not to leave.Never make a move if you are only optimistic. You must have confidence.If a situation looks bad, it probably is.Confidence is knowing how you will handle the worst.75% of ‘tips’ are based in optimism (because this is what people want to hear).
Major Axiom #10: ON CONSENSUS Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.Don’t just follow the crowd. Think things through for yourself first. Beware of ‘experts’ (there is always another ‘expert’ who will disagree!). When there is varying opinion, only a minority will be right (often because the truth is hard to find).Psychological tests have proved that the majority can sway one away from an obvious decision.Advertising is forcing a ‘pseudo’ majority opinion.
Minor Axiom #10.14 Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy is when nobody else wants it.Buying low and selling high is difficult, because it is going against the majority.
Major Axiom #11: ON STUBBORNNESS If is doesn’t pay off first time, forget it.Perseverance falls into the same camp as optimism: it can often just dig a deeper hole.It is an emotional response, feeling that the investment ‘owes’ you something.
Minor Axiom #11.15 Never try to save a bad investment by “averaging down”.ie. if the price halves, double your investment (thus reducing the break-even price by 25%).This is throwing good money after bad. See Axiom #3.Only buy at new price if you’d do it anyway.
Major Axiom #12: ON PLANNING Long range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long range plans, or other people’s, seriously.You can get trapped in your plans. See Axiom #6. Don’t let a plan immobilise you.Plans don’t account for the unexpected.A week ahead may be seen. A month is foggy. A year is almost invisible. Planning gives a lifelong illusion of order.It’s ok to plan, but keep it alive. A plan is never finished.
Minor Axiom #12.16: Shun long-term investmentsSomething that looks like a safe long term bet today may not tomorrow.Long term investors are big gamblers. They are also lazy and cowardly.Beware of unit trusts. Beware of statistics (lies, damned lies, and..). Always ask: Would I buy at the current price?There is a balance between short term hopping and long term sitting. It is usually biased towards the short term.
Marc Faber favours Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand in a world of excessive valuation
Just received Marc faber's GBD report, something to share with all:
"Finally, while I prefer for now a high level of liquidity, believing that the "Domed House" could turn into a "Doomed House", for investors who must own equities Asia offers probably the best value. Asia ex-Japan has continued to underperform the global emerging market universe, and within Asia markets such as Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand have underperformed Asia. These stock markets, with their high dividend yields, would seem to have far less downside risk in a downturn than other more extended and overbought assets markets around the world."
